Happy Father’s Day to all. My son and daughter woke me up with home made cards.
Well, somewhat disappointing and humbling results last night in Kuala Kangsar and Sungai Besar. My office math guy has started analysing the numbers.
For proper perspective, turnout was below GE13 by some 10% to 15% and these two seats were won by UMNO during GE13. So a 3 corner fight would in fact guarantee BN victory. The results were therefore a given.
What really mattered for analysis was support level of Amanah, the new party. Conclusion is they did OK and their numbers can improve as it’s political branding grows. PKR went through similar teething experiences, when we were written off as a tiny party in our early days.
So, I think it is just simply a matter of time for Amanah to grow. The paradox is, emotions are high and many voters feel that we don’t have much time.
Amanah trouncing PAS in Sungai Besar and putting up a credible showing in Kuala Kangsar were good results, in the circumstances.
Without doubt PAS was the biggest loser. But does numbers and math matter to Hadi? This is a radical leader that we cannot apply game theory on. His political decisions are not necessarily logical despite his more reasonable deputy Tuan Man.
The really unexpected story was Chinese voter swing. This is incomprehensible in the backdrop of 1MDB, hudud and GST issues. Even after factoring shrewd pro development vote, the swing was too significant.
So the lesson is Chinese votes cannot be taken for granted. There is obviously a dip in support for the Opposition. Chinese voters are generally results oriented. They vote based on administrative capabilities. It has to be earned. Therefore, the lesson is our state administrations must earn these votes. We must govern with efficiency, be fair to all races and always be free of corruption.