When Will GE14 Happen?
For those who are watching and guessing when GE14 will take place, this bit of news will only intensify the guessing game. I have just received an email from Parliament stating that there will be a Parliament sitting from 5th March to 5th April. Will the redelineation exercise be pushed through in Parliament and an election called quickly thereafter? This means that GE14 may take place as early as late March 2018.
My guess is there is a 20% chance of a March election. A 30% chance it will be in April or early May. Note that Ramadhan starts on 15th May and therefore there is a 50% chance of an election in late June or later in July or August.
Note too that the Parliament term officially ends on 23rd June 2018. If we do not have an election by August 23rd 2018, the country will go into emergency rule.